SARS NEWS... the Latest
The SARS Disaster in China
SARS epidemic in China would have a serious effect on the global economy, Michael Finger, a senior economist for the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said today. "China has become a big motor of international trade," he told a news conference on the WTO's release of global trade figures for 2002 and its outlook for 2003.
"If growth in China were dramatically affected by SARS, it would have repercussions for the rest of the world. The immediate effect would be in East Asia, because of the large amount of inter-regional trade, but the economic consequences would spread to other areas without a doubt...Everything is so interlinked."
The WTO figures for 2002 showed that China, which joined the WTO at the end of 2001, had increased trade by a massive 20% while other key regions had stagnated, and ousted Britain from fifth position among top trading powers.
SARS virus could be more devastating than AIDS.
Warns Dr Patrick Dickson,Fellow at the Centre for Management Development at London Business School. Dr Dixon, is one of Europe's experts on predicting global trends
He said: "It is worth remembering that AIDS has infected 80 million people so far over 15 to 20 years. AIDS spreads slowly so we can track it and plan for it. We have effective anti- viral drugs which can prolong life.
But this is different, we don't have the time. This is a far more serious epidemic potentially than AIDS. In a country like India, which is chaotic with minimum health provision, the potential for spreading the virus is huge. The main concern was rural, isolated areas in China and around the world. If current trends continued, there could be a billion cases within 60 weeks.
The World Health Organisation representative in China, Henk Bekedam, said there was potential for a disaster in China's poorer western provinces, noting a single patient can spread the illness quickly. "If China is not able to deal with SARS, then it will be very problematic to deal with globally. That is the problem in dealing with diseases like SARS -- they don't respect borders," Bekedam told reporters in a telephone briefing.
Britons were advised not to travel to Toronto, Hong Kong and the Chinese provinces of Guangdong, Beijing and Shanxi because of SARS.
SARS virus is now attacking the intestines as well as the respiratory system
According to a leading Hong Kong microbiologist, Professor Malik Peiris of Hong Kong University said yesterday. The change might indicate the virus had mutated, as many experts feared.There had been growing concern the virus is becoming more virulent. Doctors had been noticing changes in the way the disease behaves and whom it kills. A number of deaths over the past week have occurred in younger, previously healthy people - one being a 34-year-old pregnant women. An increasing number of those infected with SARS are now suffering from diarrhoea.
Organ failure was also now becoming more common. "Initially patients were presenting with just respiratory failure. Now we're seeing renal failure and other organ failure." according to Tom Buckley, the head of the intensive care unit at Hong Kong's Princess Margaret Hospital
SARS has the potential to totally disrupt Australian health care system
According to Peter Cameron, Professor of Emergency Medicine at the Prince of Wales Hospital in Hong Kong. Professor Cameron is an Australian, working at the centre of the SARS epidemic, which has now killed more than 200 people and infected 3800." There would be a shortage of intensive care beds, ventilators and trained staff. Apart from the potential to use hundreds of general ward beds - a disaster in itself given the bed capacity of most Australian hospitals - the biggest threat is the need for intensive care unit [ICU] beds," he said yesterday in an online Medical Journal of Australia editorial.
Professor Cameron predicted that if there were 200 cases in Sydney or Melbourne, of which 20 to 30per cent required intensive care, there would be little likelihood of finding 50 ICU beds at short notice.ICU staff also risk contracting the disease .
Richard Smallwood, the Federal Government's chief medical officer, said despite Professor Cameron's concerns, health care systems always found capacity in times of emergency. "We have been in touch with Peter and take what he has to say extremely seriously," Professor Smallwood said.
He said infection control guidelines and the availability of isolation rooms would be under constant review. "The level of preparedness is solid, everyone is alerted and moving to make as sure as possible that they are going to be able to cope with a substantial outbreak."
Australia was lucky to avoid an outbreak of the deadly SARS virus so far but unlikely to remain free of the disease for long, the NSW government said.
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