Election in Post-Mahathir Malaysia: New Prime Minister Needs Chinese Votes
Read here in Channel News Asia article "Chinese support pivotal to Malaysian PM's success"
March 16 2004
The powerful Malaysian ethnic Chinese's votes are pivotal in Malaysia's March 21 general elections, analysts say.
Malaysia's 6.5 million Chinese are the economic power behind the Malay political throne, according to popular belief, helping drive the country to the front ranks of developing Muslim nations.
Chinese, who make up just 26 percent of the population of 25 million, are estimated to own some 40 percent of corporate equity.
In the last elections in 1999 the support of the Chinese and the ethnic Indian minority, which makes up about eight percent of the population, helped the ruling National Front coalition retain its two-thirds majority despite a swing against it by Muslim Malay voters.
The coalition is led by Abdullah's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) but includes the main parties representing minorities in the country's unabashedly racial political landscape -- the Malaysian Chinese Association and the Malaysian Indian Congress.
While the Chinese and the Indians have many gripes about what they see as unfair preference given to Malays in business and education, analysts say their fear of the main opposition Islamic Party (PAS) will help ensure that the coalition remains in power.
"A strong economy, the government's pro-business policies, PM Abdullah's anti-corruption drive and his moderate Islamic image will score points with the Chinese," said Abdul Razak Baginda of the Malaysian Strategic Research Centre.
"Chinese votes will tilt the balance in many marginal seats."
Malaysia's economy beat market expectations to expand 5.2 percent in 2003, and is targeted to grow 5.5-6.0 percent this year.
Abdullah has stressed a "moderate and progressive" form of Islamic rule with the message that "Islam is a religion for development".
The National Front's manifesto pledges freedom of worship for all religions and "to fight all forms of racial intolerance, extremism and terrorism."
PAS is aware of the importance of minority votes and has constantly sought to reassure the Chinese and Indian communities that it practises a tolerant brand of Islam that will ensure their religious and cultural rights.
In the two states ruled by PAS in the rural northeast, unlicensed karaoke joints and gaming outlets operate openly in local Chinatowns despite a ban on public singing, dancing and gambling. Beer and pork, considered unclean by Islam, are sold openly to non-Muslims.
A key rival to the National Front for minority votes is the Chinese-based Democratic Action Party (DAP), which was the official opposition until an alliance with PAS saw it lose a swathe of seats in the last election.
The DAP withdrew from the PAS-led opposition coalition in 2001, citing its distrust of the party's plans to introduce an Islamic state.
"Some support will trickle back to the DAP but most still stay with the (ruling) coalition because the key issue for Chinese is the role of Islam. PAS is the bogeyman and UMNO is seen as the moderate," said Ong Kian Ming, analyst with think-tank SEDAR Institute
The DAP, however, has warned Abdullah may introduce stricter Islamic policies to compete with PAS on religious grounds and appealed to Chinese to give it a stronger voice to curb any such a trend.
Analysts say Chinese votes still carry weight in the forthcoming elections because in the absence of opinion polls it is difficult to gauge whether Malay sentiment has switched back to the government after the retirement last October of veteran premier Mahathir Mohamad.
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