The Danger for US Miscalculating Bashar al-Assad's Hand in Middle East Political End-Game

The Danger for US Miscalculating Bashar al-Assad's Hand in Middle East Political End-Game

  by
Simon Tisdall
March 2, 2005

Quote:

" His father, Hafez al-Assad, dominated Lebanon after first intervening in 1976 with US connivance.

For now, Bashar al-Assad maybe be weaker and forced into further concessions, but he is far from out of the game.

When George Bush, another son of a famous father, finally leaves the White House, it is entirely possible that Bashar Assad will still be in Damascus to wave goodbye.

Read here full article by Simon Tisdall "Backed into a corner, but don't underestimate Bashar Assad" in The Guardian UK

Edited article.

The sons of famous men often struggle to make their mark.


Dr. Bashar al-Assad ,Syria's 16th President.
(Dr. Bashar al-Assad is the second son of the late President Hafez al-Assad. Dr. Bashar al-Assad was born in Damascus, Syria on September 11, 1965. He attended school at the Franco-Arab al-Hurriyet School in Damascus. He then attended the University of Damascus and studied Medicine and specialized in Ophthalmology. He continued his education and specialization in Ophthalmology in the United Kingdom. In 1994 Dr. Bashar al-Assad entered the Homs Military Academy. In January of 1999 he rose through the ranks of the Syrian Army to become a Colonel)


And Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad , is struggling more than most as he contemplates the loss of Lebanon and his country's increasing international isolation.

Syria's 14,000 troops and intelligence and security forces now face a humiliating retreat under diplomatic and popular fire.

Syria's relations with America have deteriorated to the point that his son now publicly frets about a US attack. Syria now finds itself excluded from a reviving Middle East peace process, as its absence from yesterday's London conference on Palestine demonstrated.

Questions have been raised about whether he is wholly in charge at home.

But Rime Allaf of the Royal Institute of International Affairs said it would be foolish to underestimate the Syrian leader, despite his miscalculations.

It would also be a mistake to think Mr Assad had run out of cards to play in Lebanon or elsewhere, she suggested.

Ms Allaf said:

"There is a school of thought that says he is still fighting the old guard. But last week's replacement of the head of military intelligence with his brother-in-law suggests he is fully in control.

I think he has a very good understanding of what's happening.

The endgame for the US and Israel is the isolation of Syria.

Whenever there's a chance to put Syria in a corner, they're taking it.

But I don't think the US will try to force regime change."

With the mass protests that led to Monday's resignation of Lebanon's pro-Syrian government showing signs of abating yesterday, Mr Assad may be hoping that the crisis has peaked.

Like his father, the renowned "Sphinx of Damascus", he is likely to resort to Syria's trademark waiting game.

Lebanon remains of key importance to Syria and its interests there will not be casually surrendered.

They are financial, commercial and political.

They relate to its security and its regional leverage through the Hizbullah-Iran axis.

And they are concerned, above all, with preventing a separate peace between Lebanon and Israel.

Mr Assad knows that the rare unity of purpose shown by the non-Shia Muslim Lebanese factions in recent days may NOT survive jostling over a new government, especially if divisions are encouraged from within.

Syria's ally, President Emile Lahoud, remains in place.

And some calmer Lebanese voices are already warning against the country's unwitting manipulation, as in the past, in a broader, regional power game.

Beneath exhilarating talk of a "cedar revolution" lies Lebanon's old fear of a return to civil war, especially if a precipitate Syrian troop departure left a power vacuum for rival militias to fill.

All these factors give Mr Assad a chance to play for time.

And although he has already agreed to a troop withdrawal, discussions about a timetable and the wider implications for Lebanese self-rule under the 1989 Taif accord could yet be prolonged, whatever the US, France or Britain may say.

Despite its "people power" rhetoric and sanctions, the US also has careful calculations to make as the Lebanon crisis unfolds.

Syria's post-9/11 intelligence-sharing in the "war on terror" against al-Qaida is valued in Washington, although rarely acknowledged.

The US also knows an overtly hostile Syria could make matters much worse for its occupation forces.

This US ambivalence is reflected in its decision to omit Syria from its "outposts of tyranny" and "axis of evil" lists of rogue regimes.

While Mr Assad has never appeared weaker and may be forced into further concessions, he is far from out of the game.

And when George Bush, another son of a famous father, finally leaves the White House, it is entirely possible that Bashar Assad will still be in Damascus to wave goodbye.

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