The Eagle is Now Fearful of the Dragon
by
Jonathan Marcus
Read here original article "Pentagon report on China" by Jonathan Marcus in BBC News
Quote:
"China is the only country that has the potential to become a challenger, or even an adversary (to the United States) , if for no other reason than the simple fact that it also wishes to be a dominant actor."21 July 2005
The tone of the Pentagon's annual report to Congress on China's military power is always closely studied for a wider sense of the way in which China is being seen in Washington.
This year - at least from the Pentagon's perspective - there seems to be something of a toughening of the mood.
China, it says, is at a strategic crossroads, and choices made by Beijing will have significant implications not just for Sino-US relations, but also for the Asia-Pacific region - indeed for the whole world.
China's rise - its extraordinary economic development, its trade-led diplomacy and its growing appetite to play a role on the international stage - look set to be one of the defining themes of global development in the decades ahead.
China's military build-up is only one part of this process.
For now, it is viewed by the Pentagon as being very much related to China's long-standing dispute with Taiwan.
But in the longer term, modern military forces could become a more significant element in China's regional role.
What is worrying many China analysts is that the Bush administration's approach to the country seems to be a piece-meal one, lacking over-arching principles and thus capable of being thrown off course by minor squalls.
A Chinese bid for a US oil company with significant assets in Asia has alarmed US conservatives and prompted calls for protectionist legislation.
Of course the fact is that China, as one of America's most important creditors, is already funding a significant element of the US debt.
Whatever the day-to-day tensions, Washington and Beijing are inextricably bound up in each other's fate.
Related Article
China According to Pentagon
by
Ehsan Ahrari in Asia Online
(Ehsan Ahrari is an independent strategic analyst based in Alexandria, VA, US. Heis also a regular contributor to the Global Beat Syndicate. )
Read here original article
Excerpts:
The Pentagon's latest judgment on China's military preparedness is that "China is facing a strategic crossroads."
In a July 19 report, the US Department of Defense (DoD) stated that, China is "focused on preventing Taiwan independence or trying to compel Taiwan to negotiate a settlement on Beijing's terms".
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld in a June 5 statement in Singapore accused China of enhancing its ability to project power at a time when it faced no threat.
As a rising power, China is keenly interested in narrowing the power gap between the two militaries.
A considerable amount of time has been spent by America's military institutions in studying ancient Chinese military philosopher Sun Tzu's perspectives on winning a war, about the use of deception in peacetime as well as during war, the necessity of conducting a successful information battle, and above all the art of strategic thinking among China's military leaders, from Sun Tzu to Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
The report states:
All rising powers use their economic revenues to build their military muscle."... Chinese strategy, as they define it, is one of maintaining balance among competing priorities for national economic development and maintaining the type of security environment within which such development can occur.
In peacetime, we can expect China to pursue economic progress as part of its strategy to build comprehensive national power.It has established a goal of doubling by 2010 the size of its economy in 2000 and raising GDP per capita ($1,250 in 2004) to the levels of an 'intermediate development country' (roughly $3,400) by 2049.
Chinese leaders value such progress for its own sake, as well as for the enhancements to military forces and national power this progress will allow."
Britain and the Netherlands did that in the 18th century and emerged as major maritime powers. That in turn enabled them to acquire colonies in far-off lands.
More recently, the United States built its military power by enhancing its economic power, especially in the period between the two world wars, and eventually emerged as the most durable superpower.
The secret of America's durability is in its constant attention to ensuring that its economy remains highly vibrant.
The vibrancy of America's economic sector depends on the sustained ability of its productive sectors to remain at the cutting edge of technological development. That reality is ensured, inter alia, by constantly spending large amounts of money on research and development.
In the strategic thinking of Chinese leaders regarding military modernization, the resolution of Taiwan figures prominently. The DoD report states,
"Some Chinese military analysts have expressed the view that control of Taiwan would enable the PLA [People's Liberation Army] navy to move its maritime defensive perimeter further eastward and improve Beijing's ability to influence regional sea lines of communication.
Conversely, some of these analysts believe, the political status quo with Taiwan constrains China's ability to project power."
Still, China as a rising economic power has much to lose if it attempts a military resolution of the Taiwan conflict. The DoD report acknowledges that.
It states,
No one should conclude from them that China and the US are on a path to confrontation."China is deterred from taking military action against Taiwan on two levels.
It does not yet possess the military capability to accomplish with confidence its political objectives on the island, particularly when confronted with outside intervention. Beijing is also deterred by the potential repercussions of any use of force against Taiwan.
China's leaders recognize that a war could severely retard economic development.
(It) must calculate the probability of US intervention in any conflict in the Taiwan Strait. It views the United States as having advantages over China in many scenarios involving the use of military force".
Despite its inordinate preoccupation in conducting a global war on terrorism, the Bush administration has never lost sight of a rising China and its long-term implications for America's own dominance, not just in the Asia Pacific, but also around the world.
China is the only country that has the potential to become a challenger, or even an adversary, if for no other reason than the simple fact that it also wishes to be a dominant actor.
As long as both sides pursue a general strategy of accommodation whenever feasible, and continue to keep the competitive aspects of their mutual ties at a manageable level, the world is likely to remain a safe place.
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