Suicide Bombers' Message to Bush, Blair and the Western Leaders
News Compass post two articles for readers to understand the nature of the threat of suicide bombings that had spread from New York, Madrid, London and in other major places like Istanbul, Bali, Egypt, and Baghdad. "Iraq is the latest battlefield in this global war on terror. There is only one course of action against them: to defeat them abroad before they attack us at home." "[S]uicide-terrorist attacks are not so much driven by religion as by a clear strategic objective: to compel modern democracies to withdraw military forces from the territory that the terrorists view as their homeland. 2. THE LOGIC OF SUICIDE TERRORISM Read here original article "The Logic of Suicide Terrorism" based on an interview with Robert Pape The American Conservative (TAC) : Robert Pape: The terrorists are often quite proud of what they do in their local communities, and they produce albums and all kinds of other information that can be very helpful to understand suicide-terrorist attacks. The world leader in suicide terrorism is a group that you may not be familiar with: the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka. From Lebanon to Sri Lanka to Chechnya to Kashmir to the West Bank, every major suicide-terrorist campaign—over 95 percent of all the incidents—has had as its central objective to compel a democratic state to withdraw. People who make the argument that it is a good thing to have them attacking us over there are missing that suicide terrorism is not a supply-limited phenomenon where there are just a few hundred around the world willing to do it because they are religious fanatics. It is a demand-driven phenomenon. That is, it is driven by the presence of foreign forces on the territory that the terrorists view as their homeland. The operation in Iraq has stimulated suicide terrorism and has given suicide terrorism a new lease on life. They begin by calling tremendous attention to the presence of tens of thousands of American combat forces on the Arabian Peninsula. As you can see, we are fulfilling his prediction, which is of tremendous help in his mobilization appeals. However, there has never been an al-Qaeda suicide terrorist from Iran, and we have NO evidence that there are any suicide terrorists in Iraq from Iran. The ideology of Sudan was so congenial to Osama bin Laden that he spent three years in Sudan in the 1990s. Yet there has never been an al-Qaeda suicide terrorist from Sudan. Two thirds are from the countries where the United States has stationed heavy combat troops since 1990. Before our invasion, Iraq never had a suicide-terrorist attack in its history. Never. Since our invasion, suicide terrorism has been escalating rapidly with 20 attacks in 2003, 48 in 2004, and over 50 in just the first five months of 2005. Every year that the United States has stationed 150,000 combat troops in Iraq, suicide terrorism has doubled. Robert Pape: Very few are criminals. Few are actually longtime members of a terrorist group. For most suicide terrorists, their first experience with violence is their very What is happening is that the suicide terrorists have been produced by the invasion. This is perfectly consistent with the strategic logic of suicide terrorism. We know this not only from the pattern of their attacks but because we have an actual al-Qaeda planning document found by Norwegian intelligence. The document says that al-Qaeda should not try to attack the continent of the United States in the short term but instead should focus its energies on hitting America’s allies in order to try to split the coalition. It concludes that they should hit Spain just before the March 2004 elections because, and I am quoting almost verbatim: Spain could not withstand two, maximum three, blows before withdrawing from the coalition, and then others would fall like dominoes. Six months after the document was produced, al-Qaeda attacked Spain in Madrid. That caused Spain to withdraw from the coalition. Others have followed. So al-Qaeda certainly has demonstrated the capacity to attack and in fact they have done over 15 suicide-terrorist attacks since 2002, more than all the years before 9/11 combined. Al-Qaeda is NOT weaker now. Al-Qaeda is stronger. In the case of the Persian Gulf, that means we should pursue a strategy that secures our interest in oil but does not encourage the rise of a new generation of suicide terrorists. We relied on numerous aircraft carriers off the coast of the Arabian Peninsula, and naval air power now is more effective not less. We also built numerous military bases so that we could move large numbers of ground forces to the region quickly if a crisis emerged. Here is where religion matters, but NOT quite in the way most people think. In virtually every instance where an occupation has produced a suicide-terrorist campaign, there has been a religious difference between the occupier and the occupied community. That is true not only in places such as Lebanon and in Iraq today but also in Sri Lanka, where it is the Sinhala Buddhists who are having a dispute with the Hindu Tamils. Now, that still requires the occupier to be there. Absent the presence of foreign troops, Osama bin Laden could make his arguments but there wouldn’t be much reality behind them. The reason that it is so difficult for us to dispute those arguments is because we really do have tens of thousands of combat soldiers sitting on the Arabian Peninsula. The history of the last 20 years, however, shows the opposite. Once the occupying forces withdraw from the homeland territory of the terrorists, they often stop—and often on a dime. Once Israel withdrew from the vast bulk of Lebanese territory, the suicide terrorists did not follow Israel to Tel Aviv. This is just more evidence that withdrawal of military forces really does diminish the ability of the terrorist leaders to recruit more suicide terrorists. I am not saying that Osama bin Laden would turn over a new leaf and suddenly vote for George Bush. There will be a tiny number of people who are still committed to the cause, but the real issue is not whether Osama bin Laden exists. It is whether anybody listens to
1. "WHY ARE THEY KILLING US ?"
Read here original article by Pat Buchanan, "Why are they killing us?"
President Bush says that the terrorists are attacking our civilization.
At Fort Bragg, N.C., he said:
Bush was echoed by Sen. John McCain. McCain told Larry King, those terrorists in Iraq "are the same guys who would be in New York if we don't win."
Many terrorists who kill … on the streets of Baghdad are followers of the same murderous ideology that took the lives of citizens in New York, Washington, and Pennsylvania.
We fight the terrorists over there so we do not have to fight them over here.
But is this true?
Robert Pape, author of Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism concluded : The claim that 9/11 and the suicide bombings in Iraq are done to advance some jihad by "Islamofascists" against the West is not only unsubstantiated, it is hollow.
But if the aim of suicide bombers is not to advance Islamism in a war of civilizations, what is its purpose? Pape's conclusion:
Read below more on Robert Pape's interview.
From Lebanon to Sri Lanka to Chechnya to Kashmir to the West Bank, every major suicide terrorist campaign – over 95 percent of all incidents – has had as its central objective to compel a democratic state to withdraw."
The 9/11 terrorists were over here because we were over there. They are not trying to convert us. They are killing us to drive us out of their countries.
Between 1982 and 1986, there were 41 suicide-bomb attacks on U.S., French, and Israeli targets in Lebanon. When U.S. and French troops withdrew and Israel pulled back to a six-mile buffer zone, suicide bombings virtually ceased. When the Israelis left Lebanon, the Lebanese suicide bombers did not follow them to Tel Aviv.
Bush's cure for terrorism is a cause of the epidemic.
The doctor is spreading the disease. The longer we stay in Iraq, the greater the number of suicide attacks we can expect.
The sooner we get our troops out, the sooner terrorism over there and over here will end. So Pape says the data proves.
This is the precise opposite of what George Bush argues and believes.
(NOTE: Scott McConnell caught up with Associate Professor Robert Pape of the University of Chicago, whose book on suicide terrorism, Dying to Win, is beginning to receive wide notice.) Robert Pape has found that the most common American perceptions about who the terrorists are and what motivates them are off by a wide margin.
In his office is the world’s largest database of information about suicide terrorists, rows and rows of manila folders containing articles and biographical snippets in dozens of languages compiled by Pape and teams of graduate students, a trove of data that has been sorted and analyzed and which underscores the great need for reappraising the Bush administration’s current strategy.
Below are excerpts from a conversation with the man who knows more about suicide terrorists than any other American.
Your new book, Dying to Win, has a subtitle: The Logic of Suicide Terrorism. Can you just tell us generally on what the book is based, what kind of research went into it, and what your findings were?
TAC:
Over the past two years, I have collected the first complete database of every suicide-terrorist attack around the world from 1980 to early 2004. This research is conducted not only in English but also in native-language sources—Arabic, Hebrew, Russian, and Tamil, and others—so that we can gather information not only from newspapers but also from products from the terrorist community.
This wealth of information creates a new picture about what is motivating suicide terrorism.
Islamic fundamentalism is not as closely associated with suicide terrorism as many people think.
This is a Marxist group, a completely secular group that draws from the Hindu families of the Tamil regions of the country. They invented the famous suicide vest for their suicide assassination of Rajiv Ghandi in May 1991. The Palestinians got the idea of the suicide vest from the Tamil Tigers.
So if Islamic fundamentalism is not necessarily a key variable behind these groups, what is?Robert Pape:
The central fact is that overwhelmingly suicide-terrorist attacks are not driven by religion as much as they are by a clear strategic objective: to compel modern democracies to withdraw military forces from the territory that the terrorists view as their homeland.
TAC:
That would seem to run contrary to a view that one heard during the American election campaign, put forth by people who favor Bush’s policy. That is, we need to fight the terrorists over there, so we don’t have to fight them here.Robert Pape:
Since suicide terrorism is mainly a response to foreign occupation and not Islamic fundamentalism, the use of heavy military force to transform Muslim societies over there, if you would, is only likely to increase the number of suicide terrorists coming at us.
Since 1990, the United States has stationed tens of thousands of ground troops on the Arabian Peninsula, and that is the main mobilization appeal of Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda.
TAC:
If we were to back up a little bit before the invasion of Iraq to what happened before 9/11, what was the nature of the agitprop that Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda were putting out to attract people?Robert Pape:
Osama bin Laden’s speeches and sermons run 40 and 50 pages long.
In 1996, he went on to say that there was a grand plan by the United States—that the Americans were going to use combat forces to conquer Iraq, break it into three pieces, give a piece of it to Israel so that Israel could enlarge its country, and then do the same thing to Saudi Arabia.
TAC:
If you were to break down causal factors, how much weight would you put on a cultural rejection of the West and how much weight on the presence of American troops on Muslim territory?Robert Pape:
The evidence shows that the presence of American troops is clearly the pivotal factor driving suicide terrorism.
If Islamic fundamentalism were the pivotal factor, then we should see some of the largest Islamic fundamentalist countries in the world, like Iran, which has 70 million people—three times the population of Iraq and three times the population of Saudi Arabia—with some of the most active groups in suicide terrorism against the United States.
Sudan is a country of 21 million people. Its government is extremely Islamic fundamentalist.
I have the first complete set of data on every al-Qaeda suicide terrorist from 1995 to early 2004, and they are NOT from some of the largest Islamic fundamentalist countries in the world.
Another point in this regard is Iraq itself.
TAC:
So your assessment is that there are MORE suicide terrorists or potential suicide terrorists today than there were in March 2003?
I have collected demographic data from around the world on the 462 suicide terrorists since 1980 who completed the mission, actually killed themselves. This information tells us that most are walk-in volunteers.
own suicide-terrorist attack.
There is NO evidence there were any suicide-terrorist organizations lying in wait in Iraq BEFORE our invasion.
TAC:
Do we know who is committing suicide terrorism in Iraq? Are they primarily Iraqis or walk-ins from other countries in the region?Robert Pape:
Our best information at the moment is that the Iraqi suicide terrorists are coming from two groups—Iraqi Sunnis and Saudis—the two populations most vulnerable to transformation by the presence of large American combat troops on the Arabian Peninsula.
TAC:
Does al-Qaeda have the capacity to launch attacks on the United States, or are they too tied down in Iraq? Or have they made a strategic decision not to attack the United States, and if so, why?Robert Pape:
Al-Qaeda appears to have made a deliberate decision not to attack the United States in the short term.
TAC:
What the document then goes on to do is analyze whether they should hit Britain, Poland, or Spain.
That is exactly what happened.
What would constitute a victory in the War on Terror or at least an improvement in the American situation?Robert Pape:
For us, victory means not sacrificing any of our vital interests while also not having Americans vulnerable to suicide-terrorist attacks.
In the 1970s and the 1980s, the United States secured its interest in oil without stationing a single combat soldier on the Arabian Peninsula. Instead, we formed an alliance with Iraq and Saudi Arabia, which we can now do again.
That strategy, called “offshore balancing,” worked splendidly against Saddam Hussein in 1990 and is again our best strategy to secure our interest in oil while
preventing the rise of more suicide terrorists.
TAC:
Osama bin Laden and other al-Qaeda leaders also talked about the “Crusaders-Zionist alliance,” and I wonder if that, even if we weren’t in Iraq, would not foster suicide terrorism. Even if the policy had helped bring about a Palestinian state, I don’t think that would appease the more hardcore opponents of Israel.Robert Pape:
I not only study the patterns of where suicide terrorism has occurred but also where it hasn’t occurred. Not every foreign occupation has produced suicide terrorism. Why do some and not others?
When there is a religious difference between the occupier and the occupied, that enables terrorist leaders to demonize the occupier in especially vicious ways.
TAC:
Has the next generation of anti-American suicide terrorists already been created? Is it too late to wind this down, even assuming your analysis is correct and we could de-occupy Iraq?Robert Pape:
Many people worry that once a large number of suicide terrorists have acted that it is impossible to wind it down.
In Lebanon, for instance, there were 41 suicide-terrorist attacks from 1982 to 1986, and after the U.S. withdrew its forces, France withdrew its forces, and then Israel withdrew to just that six-mile buffer zone of Lebanon, they virtually ceased. They didn’t completely stop, but there was no campaign of suicide terrorism.
This is also the pattern of the second Intifada with the Palestinians. As Israel is at least promising to withdraw from Palestinian-controlled territory (in addition to some other factors), there has been a decline of that ferocious suicide-terrorist campaign.
That doesn’t mean that the existing suicide terrorists will not want to keep going.
TAC:
There have been many kinds of non-Islamic suicide terrorists, but have there been Christian suicide terrorists?
Robert Pape:TAC:
Not from Christian groups per se, but in Lebanon in the 1980s, of
those suicide attackers, only eight were Islamic fundamentalists.
Twenty-seven were Communists and Socialists. Three were Christians.
Has the IRA used suicide terrorism?
TAC:Robert Pape:
The IRA did not. There were IRA members willing to commit suicide—the famous hunger strike was in 1981.What is missing in the IRA case is not the willingness to commit suicide, to kill themselves, but the lack of a suicide-terrorist attack where they try to kill others.
If you look at the pattern of violence in the IRA, almost all of the killing is front-loaded to the 1970s and then trails off rather dramatically as you get through the mid-1980s through the 1990s.There is a good reason for that, which is that the British government, starting in the mid-1980s, began to make numerous concessions to the IRA on the basis of its ordinary violence.
In fact, there were secret negotiations in the 1980s, which then led to public negotiations, which then led to the Good Friday Accords.
If you look at the pattern of the IRA, this is a case where they actually got virtually everything that they wanted through ordinary
violence.
The purpose of a suicide-terrorist attack is not to die. It is the kill, to inflict the maximum number of casualties on the target society in order to compel that target society to put pressure on its government to change policy.If the government is already changing policy, then the whole point of suicide terrorism, at least the way it has been used for the last 25 years, doesn’t come up.
Are you aware of any different strategic decision made by al-Qaeda to change from attacking American troops or ships stationed at or near the Gulf to attacking American civilians in the United States?
Robert Pape:
I wish I could say yes because that would then make the people reading this a lot more comfortable.
The fact is not only in the case of al-Qaeda, but in suicide-terrorist campaigns in general, we don’t see much evidence that suicide-terrorist groups adhere to a norm of attacking military targets in some circumstances and civilians in
others.
In fact, we often see that suicide-terrorist groups routinely attack both civilian and military targets, and often the military targets are off-duty policemen who are unsuspecting.
They are not really prepared for battle.
The reasons for the target selection of suicide terrorists appear to be much more
based on operational rather than normative criteria.They appear to be looking for the targets where they can maximize the number of casualties.
In the case of the West Bank, for instance, there is a pattern where Hamas and Islamic Jihad use ordinary guerrilla attacks, not suicide attacks, mainly to attack settlers. They use suicide attacks to penetrate into Israel proper.Over 75 percent of all the suicide attacks in the second Intifada were against Israel proper and only 25 percent on the West Bank itself.
TAC:
What do you think the chances are of a weapon of mass destruction being used in an American city?
Robert Pape:I think it depends not exclusively, but heavily, on how long our combat forces remain in the Persian Gulf.
The central motive for anti-American terrorism, suicide terrorism, and catastrophic terrorism is response to foreign occupation, the presence of our troops.
The longer our forces stay on the ground in the Arabian Peninsula, the greater the risk of the NEXT 9/11, whether that is a suicide attack, a nuclear attack, or a biological attack.
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