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 Thursday, May 15, 2008

Hillary's FALSE Argument to win the Democratic Nomination

  From eljefebob's page: Read here

In the "greatest political speech of all time", as Terry McAuliffe, her attack dog, laughingly termed it tonight, Hillary, for the umpteenth time, falsely claimed that because she won West Virginia, which is poorly educated and 94% white, she is the best candidate for president.

She continues to trail in every metric: popular vote, primaries won, pledged delegates, and now super delegates; she even has the highest negatives, almost as bad as GWB's. She's on TV right now claiming victory and continuing to assert she is winning the primary race that she's already lost.

She's like the aunt who continues to stay in the guest room long after she's worn out her welcome, stolen all the towels, and emptied the cupboards.

One of her primary arguments (no pun intended) is that she wins the big states and the swing states. McAuliffe falsely claimed that she can win the states with the most electoral college votes. I'm not sure how they can make either claim, since she has never run a national campaign, but that's the assertion she and her campaign always makes.

Unfortunately for Hillary, her primary wins in New York, Massachusetts, Ohio, Indiana, West Virginia, and others really bear no relationship to how she, or Obama for that matter, will perform in a general election.

Here's why:

First, it's a DEMOCRATIC primary. She's only hearing from less than half of the total electorate, less than half of whom support her. She and her campaign have asserted that only she can win the states that she won in the primaries. Of course, that's absurd on the face, and anyone with objective judgment can recognized that. The Democratic candidate WILL WIN New York, California, Massachusetts, and the other blue states in the general election.

Second, where the Dems need to win is the south, where Obama has shown very strongly in the primaries and the polls, and swing states, like Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Iowa, where Obama has also done very well.

Clearly Obama, and the Dems, in general, have challenges in Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. However, their performance in those states will have nothing to do with how either one of them did against one another.

What matters is how they will do against McCain in those states. The dynamic will be completely different with independents and moderates from both parties participating, and only two candidates.

As this drags out, I believe the supers will continue to migrate towards Obama. They're not stupid. It serves Obama well to just lay back and let her play this out.

He looks magnanimus, and as long as she keeps her fingernails out of his eyes, she won't do much more damage than she already has.

If she goes on the attack again, leadership needs to tell her to shut up and sit down.

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