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 Monday, June 02, 2008

Adwatch: Clinton Popular Vote Claim Debatable

  Read here on Associated Press (AP)

Analysis by Jim Kuhnhenn.

The popular vote has become Clinton's main argument to party leaders and elected officials who make up the dwindling supply of undecided superdelegates who will determine the nomination. Obama is within reach of securing the nomination this week, after Montana and South Dakota vote on Tuesday. Clinton's camp argues that while Obama leads among delegates allocated by the primary elections, she has won the popular vote.

It's a debatable point.

Clinton counts the results of Michigan, a state that until Saturday had been denied delegates because it jumped ahead of other states in violation of Democratic Party rules. Though Clinton was on the ballot, Obama withdrew his name from contention in that primary. Clinton received 328,309 votes in Michigan to none for Obama.

Clinton's claim also includes estimates for caucuses in Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington state, where no official candidate popular vote is available. Obama won Iowa, Maine and Washington state. She also includes the results from Florida, where none of the Democratic presidential candidates campaigned in advance of its primary earlier this year because the Democratic Pary had declared its delegates ineligible. Clinton won more votes than Obama in Florida.

Without Florida and Michigan in the count, Obama leads Clinton by nearly 450,000 votes in the combined popular vote in primaries and caucuses where delegates were at stake.

Moreover, under Democratic Party rules, the popular vote does not determine who the nominee is; delegates do. On that count, Obama has 2,068 delegates, leaving him 50 shy of the number needed to secure the nomination, with two primaries remaining. Clinton has 1905.5, according to the latest tally by the AP.

Analysis by Jim Kuhnhenn.

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